The connection between rapidly evolving AI and Universal Basic Income (UBI)

The connection between rapidly evolving AI and Universal Basic Income (UBI) centers on addressing the economic disruption that artificial intelligence is expected to cause in the job market. As AI technologies advance at an unprecedented pace, they're creating both opportunities and challenges that are prompting serious consideration of UBI as a policy response.

The AI Displacement Challenge

AI is transforming the employment landscape in ways that distinguish it from previous technological revolutions. McKinsey predicts AI could replace up to 45% of jobs in the U.S., while the IMF estimates that in advanced economies, about 60% of jobs may be impacted by AI. Unlike past technological changes where workers could transition to new industries, AI represents a unique challenge because entire job categories may be permanently eliminated.

The displacement is already beginning. Google recently revealed that 25% of its code is now generated by AI agents, reducing the need for junior-level developers. Companies are increasingly leveraging AI to reduce employee costs, with 40% of employers expecting to reduce their workforce where AI can automate tasks. The World Economic Forum projects that by 2025, AI will displace 75 million jobs globally while creating 133 million new ones, resulting in a net gain but significant disruption in certain sectors.

UBI as a Policy Response

UBI is being proposed as a crucial safety net for workers displaced by AI automation. The concept involves providing a guaranteed income to all citizens, regardless of their employment status, which could address several key challenges posed by AI:

Economic Security During Transition

UBI would provide financial security for individuals who lose their jobs due to AI, ensuring they maintain purchasing power and can continue participating in the economy. This is particularly important because AI-driven unemployment may be more permanent than displacement from previous technological changes.

Enabling Human Development

By decoupling income from traditional work, UBI could empower individuals to pursue education, entrepreneurship, or other forms of meaningful work without the constant fear of economic insecurity. This aligns with the need for workers to retrain and adapt to an AI-transformed economy.

Addressing Inequality

AI's benefits are likely to accrue disproportionately to those who own the technology and capital. Geoffrey Hinton, often called the "godfather of AI," warns that while AI will boost productivity and wealth, "the money would go to the rich and not the people whose jobs get lost and that's going to be very bad for society". UBI could help redistribute some of AI's economic benefits more broadly.

Funding Mechanisms

To make UBI financially sustainable in an AI economy, several funding approaches are being proposed:

• AI automation taxes on companies that benefit from AI-driven automation
• Capturing a share of the increased productivity and wealth generated by AI systems
• Redirecting existing social welfare spending into a more efficient universal system

Evidence and Skepticism

While UBI has shown positive effects in trials—with over 160 UBI tests conducted over four decades generally yielding benefits for poverty alleviation, health, and education—some experts question whether AI displacement specifically justifies UBI. A major study backed by OpenAI's Sam Altman suggests that UBI's benefits may be valuable regardless of whether AI actually displaces workers on a massive scale.

The Broader Vision

UBI is increasingly viewed not just as a response to AI displacement, but as part of a fundamental recalibration of the social contract for the AI age. Proponents argue it should be combined with universal healthcare and lifelong education to create a comprehensive framework for ensuring AI's benefits are shared broadly rather than concentrated among a privileged few.

The connection between AI and UBI reflects a recognition that as artificial intelligence transforms the economy, society needs new mechanisms to ensure technological progress serves human welfare rather than undermining it. Whether UBI proves to be the right solution remains to be seen, but the rapid pace of AI development is making this conversation increasingly urgent for policymakers worldwide.

Sam Altman’s Thoughts on Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Sam Altman’s Thoughts on Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Sam Altman is a strong proponent of Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a tool to reduce poverty and equip people for an era of rapid technological change, particularly as AI advances could disrupt traditional labor markets. He has backed large-scale studies to empirically evaluate UBI’s impact, most notably funding OpenResearch’s comprehensive trial in which low-income individuals received monthly, unconditional payments.

Altman’s rationale for UBI originates from his skepticism about traditional government welfare programs and his belief that directly providing people with cash enables better decision-making and autonomy. He argues, “if you could just give people money they would make good decisions...I’m very much in favor of lifting up the floor and reducing, eliminating poverty.”

Results from the Altman-backed pilot have shown that recipients spent most of their basic income on food, housing, transportation, and childcare, and that overall reductions in hours worked were marginal (about an extra 15-minute break a day), indicating UBI does not meaningfully discourage employment.

More recently, Altman has begun to speculate that the future should involve not just traditional UBI, but also “Universal Basic Compute”—giving everyone a share of advanced AI resources (such as compute from models like GPT-7) that they can use, sell, or donate, thus equitably sharing the productivity gains from AI.

Altman has also endorsed funding UBI-like dividends through public wealth generated from AI or land taxes, rather than solely from general taxation. He distinguishes UBI from guaranteed basic income (GBI) aimed at poverty reduction; he envisions a UBI as broadly sharing new societal wealth, similar to resource dividends like Alaska’s oil fund.

Altman does not claim UBI is a panacea: he acknowledges it won’t solve every problem (such as healthcare or housing affordability), but sees UBI as a foundational economic reform for widespread AI-driven disruption.

Guy Standing’s Writings on Universal Basic Income

Guy Standing’s Writings on Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Guy Standing is a leading expert and advocate for Universal Basic Income (UBI), having written extensively on the subject for over thirty years. His work spans books, academic articles, public debates, interviews, and policy advocacy, making him a central figure in the international UBI movement.

Standing’s writings present UBI not just as an economic tool, but as a new human right—an unconditional, regular payment to all individuals, intended to provide economic security and greater freedom. He grounds the justification for UBI in ethical and philosophical arguments, emphasizing it as a remedy for the social and economic inequalities caused by rentier capitalism—the concentration of wealth and power among those who derive income from property and financial assets rather than labor.

Key Works and Ideas:

• Basic Income: And How We Can Make It Happen (2017): Standing provides an accessible, comprehensive analysis of UBI’s effects on the economy, poverty, and work. He synthesizes evidence from global pilot studies, addresses common criticisms (such as affordability, disincentives to work, and universality), and outlines practical pathways for implementation. He contends that UBI is urgent given rising inequality, technological automation, precarious work conditions, and the failings of traditional welfare systems.
• Basic Income: A Guide for the Open-Minded: This book offers further in-depth analysis, substituting instrumentally focused policy arguments with an ethical rationale. Standing insists that basic income is a matter of social justice and enhanced personal freedom.
• Empirical Evidence: Standing frequently highlights findings from UBI pilot programs worldwide, showing that UBI improves individual mental and physical health, reduces stress, increases educational participation, and fosters social solidarity.
• Addressing Objections: He rebuts common objections, arguing that unlike means-tested benefits, UBI avoids welfare traps, enhances incentives to accept employment, and can be funded through changes in taxation and the redistribution of public assets.
• UBI During COVID-19: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, Standing argued that the crisis underscored the urgency and feasibility of UBI, exposing the limitations of tying social protection to employment and the vulnerability of the “precariat”—a term he coined to describe people in insecure, unstable forms of work.
• Battling Eight Giants: Basic Income Now (2020) and related lectures: These recent works focus on the multifaceted crises facing society (inequality, insecurity, climate change, etc.) and frame UBI as part of the solution.
• Policy Experience: Standing’s approach is practical as well as visionary—he has participated in more than 50 UBI pilots and draws on this experience in advocating for incremental but meaningful policy shifts towards an unconditional basic income.

In summary, Guy Standing’s writings on UBI are characterized by their breadth, their ethical emphasis, practical proposals, and integration of empirical research and policy experience. He frames UBI as a transformative proposal for both freedom and fairness in 21st-century economies.

Key UBI + AI Thought Leaders

Key UBI + AI Thought Leaders

Tech Leaders Advocating for UBI:

• Sam Altman (OpenAI) - One of the most vocal proponents, funding UBI pilot studies
• Elon Musk - Has called UBI "necessary" as AI displaces jobs
• Mark Zuckerberg - Advocated for UBI experiments in his Harvard commencement speech
• Andrew Yang - Made UBI central to his presidential campaign, directly linking it to AI displacement

Researchers & Economists:

• Erik Brynjolfsson (MIT) - Studies AI's economic impact and automation's effects on labor
• Daron Acemoglu (MIT) - Research on technology and inequality
• Guy Standing - UBI advocate and author of "Basic Income: And How We Can Make It Happen"

The AI-UBI Connection

The Displacement Argument:

• As AI automates jobs faster than new ones are created, UBI could provide economic stability
• Allows people time to retrain/adapt (connects to Khosla's "ability to learn" advice)
• Prevents social unrest during the transition period

The Abundance Argument:

• AI could create so much wealth that UBI becomes affordable
• Khosla's vision of "almost free" services suggests dramatic cost reductions
• UBI could distribute AI's economic benefits more broadly

Counterarguments:

• Concerns about work incentives - Will people still be motivated to contribute?
• Funding challenges - How to pay for it without stifling innovation?
• Implementation complexity - Political and logistical hurdles

Current Experiments

• OpenAI's Sam Altman funded a major UBI study
• Various pilot programs worldwide (Finland, Kenya, Stockton CA)
• Results have been mixed but generally positive for mental health and job searching

The UBI debate essentially boils down to: Can we manage AI's disruptive potential through economic policy, or do we need entirely new social structures?